The Trump brand is in crisis

  Donald Trump Bled Tonight in Texas:' Reaction As Trump Pick Defeated in House Runoff

"Donald Trump's power as a GOP kingmaker has suffered a blow after voters chose Republican Jake Ellzey over the former president's pick for a vacant seat in Congress, sparking claims that he is "not bulletproof.""

He's the most important figure because that's all they have to run off. They have nothing else to give their voters except Trump and social wars.

Can't run on policy. Policy is fuck the climate, fuck poor people, fuck Healthcare, fuck voting rights, fuck anything that helps you. But look at Trump, guns and the how bad the libs are ....Maga!!!

It’s worth noting that his endorsements rarely go over very well, regardless of what’s happening now. Only 45% of republicans say they’d support a candidate endorsed by Trump; it’s critical to understand that registered republicans comprise only around 25-27% of the electorate. For independents and Democrats, around 12% and 7% respectively say they’d support a Trump candidate. Consequently, it’s clear the Trump endorsement game isn’t really a success story waiting to happen.

Also worth noting that the raw win rate for Trump-endorsed candidates is among the lowest of any recent president/Vice President/presidential candidate.

Republicans backed themselves into a corner, and really should have hit the brakes/nipped their extremism in the bud somewhere in the 2012-2015 timeframe, or at the very latest, before Super Tuesday during the primary for 2016. Now they're damned if they do, damned if they don't. Allow the party to be led by Trump, who is reviled by 65% of the public, or ditch Trump and probably lose a chunk of voters to deflated enthusiasm.

They're riding with the guy and banking on keeping the loonies mad so they turn out in midterms for anyone with an R, so long as Trump is the face of the party. As good a strategy for the party as they can muster, but a really dogshit strategy for the longterm health of the country.

I'm not sure he necessarily has them on lock but the other way around. The GOP base won't give him -- or at least their idealized versions of him -- up. He's never really been able to lead his base anywhere they didn't want to go. Instead it is the base that ends up pulling him around.

COVID vaccination is clearly the latest example but there has been several times he would be talked into positions that were broadly popular but would quickly abandon when the base rejected such as vape regulations and legislative deals with Congressional Democrats.

It is somewhat splitting hairs because ultimately the GOP won't give him up. But it is a significant distinction on who the stranglehold is really on.

The takeaway from this is not that a Republican won, that goes without saying, but that Donald Trump has lost touch with the Republican base. Even worse for him, he may have driven the vote away from his recommended candidate. The Trump brand is in crisis.